“Three consecutive years of growth in semiconductor manufacturing investment is forecast, reflecting our industry’s critical role in supporting the global economy and driving technological innovation,” said Ajit Manocha, president and CEO of SEMI. “Since our July 2024 forecast, the outlook for semiconductor equipment sales in 2024 has brightened, particularly due to stronger-than-expected investment from China and in AI-related sectors. Together with our forecast extension to 2026, this underscores the robust growth drivers across all segments, applications and regions.”
Semiconductor equipment sales by segment
After record sales of USD 96 billion last year, the Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) segment, which includes wafer processing, masks/reticles and fab equipment, is forecast to grow by 5.4% to USD 101 billion in 2024. This represents an increase from the previously forecast USD 98 billion in SEMI’s Equipment Forecast for the first half of 2024. The upward revision primarily reflects continued high investment in DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) devices, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) data processing. In addition, China’s investments continue to play a significant role in the expansion of the WFE market. Looking ahead, revenue in the WFE segment is expected to increase by 6.8% in 2025 and 14% in 2026 to USD 123 billion, driven by increased demand for advanced logic and storage applications.
After two years of decline, the back-end equipment segment experienced a strong recovery in 2024, especially in the second half of the year. Sales of semiconductor test equipment are expected to increase by 13.8% to USD 7.1 billion in 2024, while sales of assembly and packaging (A&P) equipment are expected to increase by 22.6% to USD 4.9 billion. In addition, growth in the back-end segment is expected to accelerate, with sales of test equipment expected to increase by 14.7% in 2025 and 18.6% in 2026, while sales of A&P equipment are expected to increase by 16% in 2025 and 23.5% in 2026. Growth in the back-end segments will be supported by the increasing complexity of semiconductor devices for high-performance computing and the expected increase in demand in the mobile, automotive and industrial end markets.
Wafer Fab Equipment Sales by Application
Sales of WFE for foundry and logic applications are expected to remain flat year-over-year at $58.6 billion in 2024, supported by stable spending in mature nodes. The segment is forecast to grow 2.8% in 2025 and 15% in 2026 to $69.3 billion, driven by increasing demand for leading-edge technology, the adoption of new device architectures including the transition to Gate-All-Around (GAA) and increased purchases for capacity expansion.
Memory capacity spending is expected to increase significantly through 2026, supported by increasing demand for HBM for AI deployment and ongoing technology migration. Sales of NAND equipment are expected to remain relatively weak in 2024, growing by 0.7% to USD 9.3 billion as supply and demand continue to normalize, setting the stage for expansion of 47.8% to USD 13.7 billion in 2025 and growth of 9.7% to USD 15.1 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, sales of DRAM devices are forecast to see robust growth of 35.3% to USD 18.8 billion in 2024, followed by year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 6.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Semiconductor Equipment Sales by Region
China, Taiwan and Korea are expected to remain the top three destinations for equipment investment through 2026. China is expected to maintain the top position during the forecast period as equipment purchases in the region remain stable despite the expected slowdown. Equipment shipments to China are expected to reach a record USD 49 billion in 2024, consolidating its lead over other regions. While equipment spending is expected to fall for most regions in 2024 before recovering in 2025, China is expected to see a decline in 2025 after significant investment over the past three years. All regions covered are expected to increase in 2026.
The SEMI forecast is based on the collective input of leading equipment suppliers, the SEMI Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Market Statistics (WWSEMS) data collection program and the industry-recognized SEMI World Fab Forecast database.
About SEMI
SEMI® is the global industry association connecting over 3,000 member companies and 1.5 million professionals worldwide in the semiconductor and electronics design and manufacturing supply chain. We accelerate our members’ collaboration in finding solutions to the industry’s greatest challenges through advocacy, workforce development, sustainability, supply chain management and other programs. Our SEMICON® exhibitions and events, technology communities, standards and market intelligence help drive our members’ business growth and innovation in design, devices, equipment, materials, services and software, enabling smarter, faster and safer electronics.
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