December 2, 2024. On December 2, U.S. authorities published an updated version of the Advanced Computer and Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Rule that imposes additional restrictions on suppliers exporting chip manufacturing technology. These regulations take effect immediately, with some of the changes subject to delayed compliance until December 31, 2024.
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The updated export control regulations include additions to the list of restricted technologies, including metrology and software. In addition, additional production sites, primarily in China, will be added to the U.S. restricted list. Should a similar safety assessment to that underlying the US restrictions also be carried out by the Dutch authorities, this could also have an impact on the export of DUV immersion lithography systems to these specific locations.
We do not expect any direct material impact on our business in 2024. For 2025, we expect the impact to be within what was communicated at the time of our Q3 2024 earnings, namely that we expect total net sales for 2025 to be between EUR 30 and 35 billion and that our China business (net system sales plus net sales of service and field options) will account for approximately 20% of our total net sales for that full year.
In the long term, our scenarios for demand in the semiconductor industry are not expected to be affected by the new regulations, as these scenarios are based on global demand for wafers and not on a specific geographic split. We therefore also confirm the potential scenarios for 2030 for total annual net sales of between approximately EUR 44 and 60 billion, as outlined at our Investor Day on November 14, 2024.
ASML is fully committed to complying with all applicable laws and regulations, including export control laws in the countries in which we operate, as we continue to develop our technology and serve our customers to the best of our ability.
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