{"id":542048,"date":"2026-07-10T15:33:46","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T13:33:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/silicon-saxony.de\/fraunhofer-izm-future-technologies-are-driving-up-demand-for-raw-materials\/"},"modified":"2026-07-10T15:33:46","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T13:33:46","slug":"fraunhofer-izm-future-technologies-are-driving-up-demand-for-raw-materials","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/silicon-saxony.de\/en\/fraunhofer-izm-future-technologies-are-driving-up-demand-for-raw-materials\/","title":{"rendered":"Fraunhofer IZM: Future Technologies Are Driving Up Demand for Raw Materials"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

The demand for certain raw materials could rise sharply in the coming years: Future technologies enable the transition to a climate-neutral and digitized economy, but at the same time lead to increasing demand for mineral raw materials. For the fourth time, the study \u201cRaw Materials for Future Technologies\u201d provides valuable insights and recommendations for policymakers, industry, and researchers.<\/p>\n

The analysis by Fraunhofer ISI and Fraunhofer IZM for the German Raw Materials Agency (DERA) shows that emerging technologies such as electromobility, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy could lead to significant shifts in global demand for raw materials.<\/p>\n

Fraunhofer researchers have determined that by 2045, demand for 34 future technologies under consideration could reach or exceed current global production levels for twelve metals.<\/p>\n

Iridium and Lithium Likely to See Stronger Demand in the Future Demand for iridium could rise the most, primarily due to water electrolysis technology. In this process, water is broken down into its components\u2014oxygen and hydrogen\u2014using electrical energy. When using electricity from renewable energy sources, this method of hydrogen production is considered a key technology for the decarbonization of the chemical and steel industries.<\/p>\n

Lithium ranks second. Analyses show that the demand for lithium for battery technologies\u2014particularly for electric mobility\u2014could increase fivefold by 2045. This corresponds to a demand for raw materials that is roughly four times higher than today\u2019s global production volume. Scandium follows in third place, driven by high potential demand for stationary fuel cells. In one of the scenarios examined, demand for graphite used in high-performance lithium-ion batteries will also reach a level in 2045 that is significantly higher than global production in 2023.<\/p>\n

Wind power, heat pumps, and data centers are driving up demand for raw materials<\/h3>\n

Other raw materials with potentially rapidly rising demand include the heavy rare earth elements dysprosium and terbium, which are needed for traction motors in electric passenger cars, wind turbines, heat pumps, and air conditioning systems.<\/p>\n

Future demand for platinum could also be significantly higher than current total production. This is due to the potential demand for storage media in data centers. Digital technologies, including the further development of AI, are indirectly driving demand for platinum and ruthenium through the global expansion of data centers.<\/p>\n

Given the expected growth in data\u2014which could increase a hundred- to a thousand-fold, depending on how things develop\u2014the demand for the raw materials needed to support this is rising significantly. This underscores the need for resilient, sustainable raw material strategies for digital technologies. \u201cDigitalization is always a materialization, and \u2018the cloud\u2019 is a technology-based system that actually requires a great deal of raw materials\u2014it\u2019s not some fluffy, light cloud,\u201d says Jana R\u00fcckschloss, a research associate at Fraunhofer IZM.<\/p>\n

Conclusion: Transformation can only succeed with early-stage raw material policy measures<\/h3>\n

The analysis of future technologies through 2045 shows that the availability of raw materials will become a decisive factor in the success of the sustainable and digital transformation of the economy and society.<\/p>\n

From the researchers\u2019 perspective, measures are needed to secure raw materials, such as diversifying and securing supply chains, increasing efficiency in the manufacture and use of products, expanding the circular economy with more recycling, and developing new methods for substituting certain materials. Raw materials should be taken into account early on in the development of new technologies, for example in material selection and design. <\/p>\n

\u201cOur analysis does not present a forecast, but rather possible development paths,\u201d emphasizes Dr. Sabine Langkau, head of the Sustainability Innovations and Policy division at Fraunhofer ISI. \u201cThe study can be understood as an early-warning tool that makes one thing clear: We need a strategic industrial and raw materials policy that secures the raw materials base for future technologies with foresight, so that we do not have to react to supply bottlenecks and price increases in the short term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Study Methodology<\/h3>\n

The study analyzed the impacts of 34 technologies for which exceptional demand growth is expected by 2045. The future technologies examined span the fields of mobility, aerospace, digitalization, power and data networks, as well as energy technologies and decarbonization. All technologies were analyzed across three scenarios to cover a wide range of possible future developments:<\/p>\n